# Phase 7: Honest Assessment — Signal vs Noise

## Test Statistics

- New interaction tests run: 19
- Significant at 5%: 2
- Significant at 10%: 3
- Expected false positives (5%): 1.0
- Ratio (actual/expected): 2.1x
- OOS predictions matching: 7/8

## Interpretation

Signal modestly above chance. Some findings are likely real (particularly those that replicate Phase 2-6 patterns), but individual marginal results should be treated with caution.
